Views on Xi-Biden meeting from Chinese experts

Xi has candid, in-depth exchange of views with Biden

On the evening of Friday, the two heads of China and the United States had a constructive interaction. Today's newsletter offers you a translation of interviews of several mainstream Chinese scholars with their comments on Friday's meeting and the development trend of Sino-U.S. relationship.

In addition, this newsletter also includes former editor in chief of Global Times Hu Xijin's views on the meeting on Weibo.

The translation, which was done by Ginger River during this weekend, hasn’t been reviewed by the media which conducted the interview or the interviewees, so it should only serve as a reference, not as an official translation of the original text. Ginger River also includes the links of the original text in this newsletter. The highlights are by Ginger River.

Before we deep dive into the scholars' opinions, let us take a look at Chinese State Councilor and Foreign Minister Wang Yi's remarks which he made Saturday when briefing journalists on the exchange of views between the heads of China and the U.S. on the Ukraine issue during Friday's video call. Ginger River believes it reflects China's official position on the meeting.

Question from CGTN: Some senior U.S. official said that the U.S. expects China to make decisions in the coming days or even weeks regarding the next step in the Russia-Ukraine situation. What is your response to that? Will China's future actions and position on the Russia-Ukraine situation change?

Wang Yi: President Xi has clearly and comprehensively clarified China's position on the Ukraine issue. The most important message the Chinese president has sent is that China has always been a force for maintaining world peace. We have always stood for maintaining peace and opposing war. This is not only embedded in China's history and culture, but also the foreign policy China has always committed to. China will continue to make an independent assessment based on the merits of each matter and in an objective and impartial manner. We will never accept any external coercion or pressure, and we will also oppose any groundless accusations or suspicions targeted against China.

Wang Yi: During the talks, President Xi also proposed a two-pronged Chinese solution to the Ukraine crisis. The pressing priority is for all parties to work together to promote dialogue and negotiations between Russia and Ukraine, cease hostilities as soon as possible, and avoid civilian casualties, in particular, preventing a worsening humanitarian crisis. An enduring solution would be to reject the Cold War mentality, refrain from bloc confrontation and build a balanced, effective and sustainable security architecture for the region to realize the lasting peace and security on the European continent.

Wang Yi: China's position is objective and fair and the same as the aspirations of most countries. Time will tell that the Chinese stance is on the right side of history.

***

贾庆国，北京大学国际关系学院原院长

Jia Qingguo, professor and former Dean of the School of International Studies of Peking University

刁大明, 中国人民大学国家发展与战略研究院研究员

Diao Daming, researcher at the National Academy of Development and Strategy of Renmin University of China

The following is part of the two experts' interview for 侠客岛 Xiakedao, a social media account run by the overseas edition of the People's Daily. The interview was posted on Weibo on Saturday.

1、侠客岛：视频通话前，有美官员称若中方“继续支持俄罗斯侵乌”，美方“将毫不犹豫让中国付出代价”。中方则在通话中重申“主张和平，反对战争”立场。如何看待双方就俄乌冲突的不同立场？面对当前局势，两国能协同发挥怎样作用？

Question 1: Before the video call, a U.S. official said that if China "continues to support Russia's invasion of Ukraine," the U.S. "will not hesitate to make China pay the price." The Chinese side, on the other hand, reiterated its position of "advocating peace and opposing war" in the call. How do you see the different positions of the two sides on the Russia-Ukraine conflict? What role can the two countries play together facing the current situation?

刁大明：美方邀请中方通话，说明在乌克兰问题上，美方希望中方“配合”其对俄发起的制裁。美官员提出的“付出代价”显然是一种胁迫。中方不会胁迫任何国家，也绝不接受任何国家的胁迫。

Diao Daming: The U.S. invitation to speak with China indicates that the U.S. side wants China to "cooperate" with the sanctions it has imposed on Russia over Ukraine. The "price" proposed by U.S. officials is clearly a form of coercion. China will not coerce any country, and will never accept coercion from any country.

对俄乌冲突，如果美方的态度是缓和当前局势，尽快劝和促谈，实现和平对话，中美之间是可以形成合力的，中方也愿意与包括美方在内的国际社会成员共同推进实现乌克兰问题的和平解决。但若美方执意采取施压制裁手段，那显然与中方“主张和平，反对战争”立场相悖，双方也很难协同发挥作用。

Diao Daming: If the U.S. side's attitude is to de-escalate the current situation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, urge peace and negotiation as soon as possible, and achieve peaceful dialogue, a synergy can be formed between China and the United States. China is also willing to work with members of the international community, including the U.S. side, to promote the realization of a peaceful solution to the Ukraine issue. However, if the U.S. side insists on adopting pressure and sanctions, it is obviously contrary to China's position of "advocating peace and opposing war," and it is difficult for both sides to work together.

2、侠客岛：俄乌局势升级以来，美欧将俄罗斯部分银行剔除SWIFT支付系统，有美媒还放话要制裁中国，多家中概股被美方列入“预摘牌名单”。如何看待美方有关制裁措施?这对全球经贸、金融、能源等会产生哪些影响？

Question 2: Since the escalation of the situation between Russia and Ukraine, the U.S. and Europe have removed some Russian banks from the SWIFT payment system, and some U.S. media have also talked about sanctioning China, and a number of Chinese stocks have been put on the "pre-delisting list" by the U.S. side. How do you think about the U.S. sanctions? What impact will this have on global trade, finance, energy, etc.?

贾庆国：美方在是否实施制裁上，内部意见并不统一。秉持极端对立思维的人，鼓吹用更强硬举措处理中美关系；温和务实派认为此举得不偿失，会给美国经济、安全利益带来伤害，对世界秩序产生不可预估的影响。

Jia Qingguo: The U.S. side is not united internally on whether to impose sanctions. Those who uphold extreme oppositional thinking advocate tougher moves to deal with U.S.-China relations. Moderate pragmatists believe that such a move would bring more trouble than benefit and would harm U.S. economic and security interests and have an unpredictable impact on the world order.

刁大明：美方金融制裁不断升级加码，且现在美国内部有呼声，要将有关制裁上升到“顶配”状态，把俄罗斯变成“经济全球化中的孤岛”。关于制裁升级的影响，习近平主席在通话中提到，“会引发全球经贸、金融、能源、粮食、产业链供应链等发生严重危机”。现在欧洲出现了能源短缺问题，美国自身也面临油价上涨，一味搞施压制裁，不仅害人害己，对疫情背景下的全球经济复苏也会起反作用。

Diao Daming: The U.S. financial sanctions have been escalated and increased, and there are now calls within the U.S. to raise them to "top gear" status, turning Russia into a "lonely island in economic globalization." Regarding the impact of escalating sanctions, President Xi Jinping mentioned in the call that "they could trigger serious crises in global economy and trade, finance, energy, food, and industrial and supply chains." Now that Europe is experiencing energy shortages and the U.S. itself is facing rising oil prices, engaging in pressure and sanctions will not only harm others and themselves but also be counterproductive to global economic recovery in the context of the epidemic.

如果美方对中方态度置若罔闻，继续一意孤行，中方会做出周密安排，在国际机制中发起申诉，甚至采取“对等回应”。但这样的结果中方并不希望看到。在中方看来，中美之间，一个“和”字尤为重要。

Diao Daming: If the U.S. side ignores China's attitude and continues to go its own way, China will make careful arrangements to initiate complaints in the international mechanism and even take "reciprocal response." But such an outcome is not what China wants to see. In China's view, the word "peace" is particularly important between China and the United States.

3、侠客岛：拜登在通话中重申“四不一无意”立场，习主席强调，对有关表态“十分重视”。去年中美元首“云会晤”以来，美国一些人并未把有关表态落到实处。如何看待美方对华政策的两面性、矛盾性？

Question 3: President Biden reiterated his “四不一无意”立场 "four 'no's and one 'no intention'" stance -- the U.S. does not seek to have a new Cold War with China, to change China's system, or to revitalize alliances against China, and that the U.S. does not support "Taiwan independence" or intend to seek a conflict with China. President Xi stressed that he "takes these remarks very seriously." Since last year's "cloud meeting" between the U.S. and China, some people on the U.S. side have not followed through on the important common understanding reached by the two Presidents and have not acted on President Biden's positive statements. How do you see the two-faced and contradictory nature of the U.S. policy toward China?

贾庆国：在“四不一无意”中，拜登称不支持“台独”，对台湾问题作了积极表态。可从政策实操层面看，美国不断发展与台湾的官方甚至军方关系。这受美国国内政治的影响较大，如美国国会对华强硬的声音占主流，拜登所处的民主党在国会议席数量优势微弱，很多涉台法案与财政、国防等其他法案捆绑联系，若想确保那些法案在国会通过，拜登只得连带接受对台条款。凡此种种，使美国在对台政策上的做法充满矛盾，给中方造成很大困扰。

Jia Qingguo: In the "four 'no's and one 'no intention'" narrative, Biden said he does not support "Taiwan independence" and has made a positive statement on the Taiwan issue. But at the practical level of policy, the U.S. has continued to develop official and even military relations with Taiwan. This is influenced by the domestic politics of the United States, such as the dominance of hard-line voices in the U.S. Congress, the weakness of Biden's Democratic Party in terms of the number of seats in Congress, and the fact that many Taiwan-related bills are bundled with other bills on finance and defense, so if he wants to ensure the passage of those bills in Congress, Biden will have to accept the Taiwan provisions together. All these make the U.S. approach to Taiwan policy full of contradictions and cause great trouble to China.

去年11月元首会晤，习近平主席说，“历史是公正的，一个政治家的所作所为，无论是非功过，历史都要记上一笔。”

Jia Qingguo: At the meeting between the heads of China and the United States last November, President Xi Jinping said, "History is a fair judge. What a statesman does, be it right or wrong, be it an accomplishment or a failure, will all be recorded by history. "

美国国内阻力不小。但在中美关系上能否超越个人政治利益、摒弃意识形态对立、让理性务实的人发挥更大作用，这在很大程度上取决于美国领导人的眼界、能力和决心。对此，美国领导人是有选择权和影响力的。

Jia Qingguo: There is no shortage of domestic resistance in the United States. But the ability to transcend personal political interests in U.S.-China relations, to reject ideological antagonism, and to allow rational and pragmatic people to play a greater role depends to a large extent on the vision, ability and determination of the U.S. leaders. In this regard, the U.S. leaders have the right to choose and influence.

刁大明：美方只有真正落实“四不一无意”，与中方“相互尊重、和平共处、合作共赢”的三原则相结合，才能形成中美关系稳定发展的积极图景。

Diao Daming: Only when the U.S. side truly implements the "four 'no's and one 'no intention'" and combines them with China's three principles of "mutual respect, peaceful coexistence and win-win cooperation" can a positive picture of the stable development of U.S.-China relations be formed.

***

吴心伯, 复旦大学美国研究中心主任

Wu Xinbo, director of the Center for American Studies of Fudan University

The following is part of his interview for the Wechat account of Guancha.cn. It was posted on Saturday. 

观察者网：美国很长时间以来都想“转向印太”，但是现在被乌克兰问题牵制了很多资源和精力，有分析认为，这一定程度上对中国利好，您怎么看？当下的形势会对中美俄三边关系将产生哪些影响？

Question: The U.S. has been trying to "shift to the Indo-Pacific" for a long time, but now it's being held back by the Ukraine issue. What impact will the current situation have on the trilateral relations between China, the U.S. and Russia?

吴心伯：我觉得乌克兰问题今后肯定会牵扯到美国在欧洲更多的精力和资源的投入，这是不可避免的。这在一定程度上，这也牵制了它在印太针对中国的资源和精力的投入，会削弱其针对中国的“印太战略”的推进。

Wu Xinbo: I think it is inevitable that the Ukraine issue will definitely involve more U.S. efforts and resources in Europe in the future. To a certain extent, this will also restrain its investment of resources in the Indo-Pacific against China, which will weaken the advancement of its Indo-Pacific strategy against China.

从中美俄三边关系来看，我觉得中俄关系的基本面不会发生变化，我们不会因为美国施压，或者挑拨离间就疏远俄罗斯，因为中俄关系是基于我们双方共同的战略需要，这一点我们是很清醒的，不会因为美国施压或者讲几句好话就犯糊涂。

Wu Xinbo: From the perspective of trilateral relations between China, the United States and Russia, I think the fundamentals of Sino-Russia relations will not change. We will not alienate Russia because of U.S. pressure or provocation, because Sino-Russian relations are based on the common strategic needs of our two sides, and we are very clear about this, and we will not be confused because of the U.S. pressure or a few good words.

美俄关系现在已经破裂了，完全撕破脸了，我估计在拜登任期内基本上没有什么改善的余地了。如果特朗普再上台，可能特朗普会尝试改善一下，但是从美国国内的政治环境来讲也很难。也就是说，美俄关系会持续地紧张和对抗。

Wu Xinbo: The U.S.-Russia relationship is now broken, completely "torn up," and I guess there is basically no room for improvement during Biden's term. If Trump comes back to power, maybe Trump will try to improve it, but it's also very difficult in terms of the domestic political environment. In other words, U.S.-Russia relations will continue to be tense and confrontational.

中美关系这一边，我觉得习主席这次对拜登总统已经讲得很到位了，接下来拜登怎么做很关键。如果他对改善中美关系还是没有实质性的行动，我觉得，恐怕我们对拜登政府在中美关系问题上就不会有什么期待了。下一次美方再要找中方通话，中方的兴趣可能就不大了。该讲的话都讲到这个份儿上了，拜登身边人的人还是不去落实，还是没有相应的动作，那么再谈下去也没什么意思了。

Wu Xinbo: On the U.S.-China relations side, I think President Xi has spoken very well to President Biden this time, and what Biden does next is critical. If he still has no substantive action to improve Sino-US relations, I am afraid we will not expect much from the Biden administration on the issue of Sino-US relations. The next time the U.S. side wants to talk to the Chinese side, the Chinese side may not be very interested. The words having been said to this point, if the people around President Biden still do not go to implement, or have no corresponding action, then there is no point in talking about it.

所以，接下来要看拜登有没有诚意要来改善中美关系。在当前的情况下，乌克兰危机实际上给拜登提供了一个机会去说服美国国内的保守和反华的势力，告诉他们，现在要改善一下中美关系，不能继续强力打压中国，这么做对美国没有好处。

Wu Xinbo: So, the next step is to see whether Biden is sincere in improving Sino-U.S. relations. In the current situation, the Ukraine crisis actually gives Biden an opportunity to convince the conservative and anti-China forces in the U.S. that it is time to improve Sino-U.S. relations and not to continue to forcefully suppress China, which is not good for the U.S.

实际上拜登现在有这样一个机会，他能不能抓住这个机会需要我们接下来继续观察。

Wu Xinbo: In fact, President Biden now has such an opportunity. Next, we need to continue to observe whether he can seize the opportunity.

***

胡锡进，《环球时报》特约评论员

Hu Xijin, Former Editor in Chief of the Global Times, special commentator

The following is part of the comment by Hu published on his Weibo on Saturday.

读中美双方的通报，老胡进一步形成以下强烈印象：

After reading the readouts from China and the United States after the meeting, I further got the following strong impressions.

第一，目前的局势复杂、棘手，但中国是战略主动性最多的一方。

First, the current situation is complex and tricky, but China is the party with the most strategic initiative.

美国很想影响中国的态度，在本次视频峰会前释放了威胁中国的强硬信息，但没怎么敢搬到元首视频通话上来，他们更想借助威胁来“劝中国”，因为他们知道中国不吃他们威胁的那一套。

The U.S. is keen to influence China's attitude and released a tough message threatening China before this video summit, but did not dare to move it to the video call of the two heads. They prefer to use threats to "persuade China" because they know it is useless to make threats to China.

第二，中国围绕乌克兰局势大的中立立场得到了巩固。

Secondly, China's general neutral position on the situation in Ukraine has been consolidated.

对中国均衡的表态方式，美西方虽有意见，但实际上接受了。

The U.S. and the West, despite their opinions, actually accepted China's balanced approach to its position.

在反对中国对俄提供实质援助的同时，对中国将与俄罗斯保持基于正常国家关系的贸易往来，不参与西方制裁，他们也奈何不得。

While opposing China's substantial assistance to Russia, they could not do anything about the fact that China will maintain trade with Russia based on normal state relations and will not participate in Western sanctions.

美国的意图是想尽量压制中俄贸易升温，能压多少压多少。

The U.S. intention is to try to suppress the warming of trade between China and Russia as much as it can.

中美双方为此可能产生某些具体争执和摩擦，但美方“将毫不犹豫让中方承受代价”，属于虚张声势。

The U.S. and China may have some specific disputes and friction over this, but the U.S. side "will not hesitate to let the Chinese side bear the cost" is bluffing.

第三，俄乌冲突带来了强烈震荡，但也打开了地缘政治新的空间。

Third, the Russia-Ukraine conflict has brought strong shocks, but it has also opened up new geopolitical space.

中国在加强同俄全面关系的方向出现了更多显著条件，在缓和同美矛盾、扩大对欧关系等其他方向，也并非没有可能，相关的潜在条件同样在形成。

More significant conditions have emerged in the direction of China strengthening comprehensive relations with Russia, and other directions, such as easing tensions with the U.S. and expanding relations with Europe, are not out of the question, and relevant potential conditions are also emerging.

中国的整体机遇明显大于挑战。

The overall opportunities for China clearly outweigh the challenges.

关键在于我们将如何在保持战略定力的基础上控制好风险，把握好机遇。

The key lies in how we will manage the risks and seize the opportunities while maintaining strategic certainty.

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