Chinese media signals three warnings in a week on potential trade retaliation against EU
Chinese media signals three warnings in a week on potential trade retaliation against EU
Insider: Chinese industries to seek anti-dumping probe on EU pork imports
Good evening. I know that most overseas subscribers to this newsletter tend not to check news or work over the weekend, but it seems that sometimes Chinese media or institutions choose to "leak" information over the weekend. Of course, it's possible that they did this intentionally to test the waters.
On Saturday afternoon, the Global Times tweeted a brief message revealing that they had learned from industry insiders about Chinese sectors preparing evidence to request an anti-dumping investigation into certain pork imports from the EU.
The tweet didn't provide further details, and a check on the Global Times' English website showed no related news articles. Was it too soon to post, or did the relevant officials wish to manage the impact of this news so they chose intentionally to "leak" the news on the weekend? It's unclear, but you might recall that just a week ago, on another Saturday, Yu Yuan Tan Tian 玉渊谭天, a social media channel with a presence in China’s social media and known to be run by China Media Group, also released a similar "leak."
You may recall that I referenced Yu Yuan Tan Tian's warning when discussing an exclusive interview published by the Global Times on Tuesday. In the interview, Liu Bin, the chief expert at China Automotive Technology & Research Center (CATARC) and deputy director of China Automotive Strategy and Policy Research Center, advocated for increasing the temporary tariff rate on imported cars with large engines. The Global Times noted that Liu has been involved in drafting policies for China's automotive industry.
I'd like to summarize the three cases of "leaking" by Chinese media.
The first was in Chinese and was through the "Yuyuan Tan Tian" known to be run by the China Media Group on domestic social media Sina Weibo, China's version of “X” on May 18 (Saturday).
The second case involved the Global Times publishing an exclusive interview on May 21 (Tuesday), emphasizing that the interviewed expert participating in drafting policies for China's auto industry.
The third piece, releasing today (May 25, Saturday), saw the Global Times post solely on Twitter.
These releases varied in format and language used, and both the first and third instances were on a Saturday. Therefore, those not closely following Chinese media channels might not connect these three events. However, based on my personal assessment, the fact that China's major media outlets released three consecutive “leaks” related to trade measures within about a week is no coincidence and warrants close attention from stakeholders.
According to a report by POLITICO earlier this month, the European Commission’s investigation into Chinese subsidies for electric vehicles is “advancing,” trade chief Valdis Dombrovskis told POLITICO's Brussels Playbook — and he hinted Brussels could impose tariffs “before the summer break.”
Given the recent leaks from Chinese media, it's hard to believe that China won't retaliate if EU imposes provisional duties on imports of new battery-powered vehicles from China.
Additionally, I believe that EU has placed significant importance on agricultural exports, especially pork, to China. Below is an excerpt from an interview with EU Agriculture Commissioner Janusz Wojciechowski by Chinese media in April, which I have translated for clarity:
From 21 to 26 April, EU Agriculture Commissioner Janusz Wojciechowski visited China to facilitate European agricultural food and beverage exports to China and expand their presence on this market. He was accompanied by a business delegation of senior representatives from the EU agri-food sector. During his visit to China, Commissioner Wojciechowski attended events and meetings in Shanghai, Shenzhen and Beijing.
In an exclusive interview with Yicai, he said that a major purpose of the visit was to increase EU agricultural exports to China, while also hoping that agricultural trade between the two sides would not be disrupted by other factors.
Wojciechowski told Yicai that strengthening EU-China trade relations is of great significance, as China is a very important partner for the EU. Open food trade is very important for both the EU and China, and the signals released by both sides in reducing trade barriers are positive. He said that pork exports are very important for EU agriculture, but not all EU countries can currently export pork to China.
Spain and Germany are among the top tier of EU pork producers. The EU is now the world's second-largest pork producer after China and is the largest exporter of pork and pork products. The EU is China's largest source market for pork imports, and China is the EU's largest target market for pork exports, with the pork industries in both regions being highly complementary.
Besides pork, Wojciechowski believes that the EU's share of beef exports to China is small, and the EU can also provide high-quality poultry to the Chinese market. Additionally, there is room for improvement in EU exports of dairy products, wine, and olive oil to China.